Deere & Company Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis Dashboard

Q4 Net Sales

Predicted

$11.80B

Actual

$12.39B

✓ Beat by $590M (+5.0%) BEAT

Q4 Net Income

Predicted

$1.45B

Actual

$1.07B

✗ Missed by $380M (-26.2%) MISS

Q4 Diluted EPS

Predicted

$5.35

Actual

$3.93

✗ Missed by $1.42 (-26.5%) MISS

FY 2025 Diluted EPS

Predicted

$19.93

Actual

$18.50

✗ Missed by $1.43 (-7.2%) MISS

Q4 Net Sales Comparison

Predicted vs Actual ($ Billions)

Predicted: $11.80B

Actual: $12.39B

Quarterly Revenue Progression

Q1-Q4 2025 Actual Results ($ Billions)

Actual Quarterly Sales

Q4 Segment Revenue Distribution

Actual Q4 2025 Sales by Segment

Production & Precision Ag

Small Ag & Turf

Construction & Forestry

EPS Progression Q1-Q4 2025

Predicted vs Actual Diluted EPS

Predicted EPS

Actual EPS

📈 Prediction Accuracy Analysis

Revenue Forecast: ACCURATE ✓

Predicted $11.8B vs Actual $12.39B. Beat by $590M (+5.0%). Strong Q4 sales driven by Construction & Forestry (+27% YoY) and improved inventory management.

Profitability Forecast: MISSED ✗

Predicted $1.45B net income vs Actual $1.07B. Missed by $380M (-26.2%). Margin compression from tariffs and production costs exceeded expectations despite higher sales.

EPS Forecast: MISSED ✗

Predicted $5.35 vs Actual $3.93. Missed by $1.42 (-26.5%). Lower net income and higher share count impacted per-share earnings more than anticipated.

Full Year Performance

FY2025 EPS: Predicted $19.93 vs Actual $18.50 (-7.2%). Full year sales $45.68B (down 12% YoY). Tariff impact and margin pressure more severe than modeled.

Key Insight: Revenue Beat, Profit Miss

The divergence between revenue beat and profit miss indicates pricing power limitations. Higher sales volume couldn't offset cost pressures, revealing structural margin challenges.

2026 Outlook: Cautious

Management guidance of $4.0-4.75B net income for FY2026 (down from $5.03B in FY2025) signals continued headwinds. Large ag equipment market expected to remain subdued.

📊 Segment Performance Analysis

Segment	Q4 2025 Sales	YoY Change	Operating Margin	Key Driver
Production & Precision Ag	$4.74B	+10% YoY	~14.5%	Improved inventory; Brazil strength
Small Ag & Turf	$3.38B	+5% YoY	~16.0%	Dairy/livestock resilience
Construction & Forestry	$3.38B	+27% YoY	~10.3%	Strong earth-moving demand
Financial Services	$293M NI	+69% YoY	N/A	Higher interest rates; strong portfolio

🎯 Prediction Model Assessment

What We Got Right

✓ Revenue direction and magnitude (beat by 5%) ✓ Q4 seasonal strength vs Q3 ✓ Construction & Forestry outperformance ✓ Financial Services growth ✓ Overall market trends

What We Got Wrong

✗ Underestimated tariff/cost impact on margins ✗ Overestimated pricing power ✗ Margin compression severity (predicted 27-28% gross margin, actual ~26%) ✗ Net income leverage to higher sales

Model Accuracy Score

Revenue Forecast: 95% Accurate (±5% variance) | Profit Forecast: 74% Accurate (±26% variance) | Overall: 84.5% Accurate

Lessons Learned

Tariff impacts are more structural than cyclical. Cost inflation doesn't fully reverse with volume recovery. Margin recovery requires pricing discipline, not just volume growth. 2026 guidance suggests challenges persist.

📊 Deere & Company Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis