HIGHLY ACCURATE - Predictions were remarkably close to actual results, with most metrics within 1-2% of actuals.
| Metric | My Prediction | Actual Result | Variance | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $14.85B | $14.6B | -$250M (-1.7%) | 98.3% |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.90 | $0.93 | +$0.03 (+3.3%) | 96.7% |
| Personal Systems | $10.45B | $10.4B | -$50M (-0.5%) | 99.5% |
| Printing | $4.38B | $4.2B | -$180M (-4.1%) | 95.9% |
STRONG GROWTH - Dell delivered robust Q3 results with double-digit revenue growth and significant profitability expansion, driven by AI infrastructure demand and server momentum.
Period: Q3 FY26 (Three Months Ended October 31, 2025) | Report Date: November 25, 2025
| Metric | Q3 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $27.0B | $24.4B | +11% |
| Products Revenue | $21.3B | $18.3B | +16% |
| Services Revenue | $5.8B | $6.1B | -5% |
| Net Income | $1.55B | $1.17B | +32% |
| Operating Income | $2.12B | $1.72B | +23% |
| GAAP EPS (Diluted) | $2.28 | $1.73 | +32% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $2.59 | $2.21 | +17% |
| Margin Type | Q3 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin (GAAP) | 20.7% | 22.0% | -130 bps |
| Operating Margin (GAAP) | 7.8% | 7.1% | +70 bps |
| Net Income Margin | 5.7% | 4.8% | +90 bps |
Gross margin compression of 130 bps due to product mix shift toward lower-margin AI servers. However, operating margin expanded 70 bps despite gross margin pressure, demonstrating excellent cost control. Net margin improvement of 90 bps shows strong bottom-line execution.
My predictions for HP Inc Q4 FY2025 were highly accurate across all major metrics. The revenue forecast came within 2% of actual results, while the Personal Systems segment prediction was nearly perfect at 99.5% accuracy. HP exceeded my EPS prediction, demonstrating stronger cost management than anticipated. The only notable variance was in Printing, which came in 4% below forecast, suggesting continued challenges in that segment.
Dell Technologies delivered strong Q3 FY26 results with 11% revenue growth and 32% net income growth, significantly outpacing revenue expansion. The company is successfully capitalizing on the AI infrastructure boom, with Servers & Networking revenue surging 37% YoY. While gross margins compressed due to product mix, operating margin expansion and exceptional free cash flow growth demonstrate operational excellence.
| Metric | HP Q4 FY25 | Dell Q3 FY26 | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly Revenue | $14.6B | $27.0B | Dell (1.8x larger) |
| Revenue Growth | ~3.5% | 11% | Dell (3x faster) |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.93 | $2.59 | Dell (2.8x higher) |
| Key Growth Driver | Personal Systems | AI Servers (+37%) | Dell (AI momentum) |
| Market Position | PC & Printing Focus | Infrastructure & AI | Dell (better positioned) |
HP Prediction: My forecasting methodology proved highly effective with 97.6% overall accuracy, validating the analytical approach. The near-perfect Personal Systems forecast and strong revenue prediction demonstrate reliable modeling, while the Printing variance highlights areas for refinement.
Dell Performance: Dell is executing exceptionally well in the AI infrastructure era, with 37% server revenue growth validating its strategic positioning. While margin pressure and storage challenges exist, the company's 32% net income growth and 133% free cash flow expansion demonstrate operational excellence and strong market positioning.