Strategic Supply Chain Analysis & Risk Assessment
Top 3 refining nations control global processing capacity (up from 82% in 2020)
CRITICAL RISKCritical minerals where China controls production, including 98.7% of gallium
CRITICAL RISKLithium demand surge in 2024, far exceeding historical 10% annual growth
HIGH RISKAnnual revenue loss from illegal cobalt mining in Democratic Republic of Congo
HIGH RISK2022 losses from PGM theft, with 20% increase per 10% metal price rise
HIGH RISKTons of cobalt on ocean floor - 5x terrestrial reserves
MEDIUM RISKGeographic and processing bottlenecks in global mineral supply chains
| Mineral | Primary Chokepoint | Risk Level | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Earths | China refining dominance | CRITICAL | 85% of global refining |
| Cobalt | DRC mining + China refining | CRITICAL | 73% mining + 75% refining |
| Graphite | China extraction & processing | CRITICAL | 90% global control |
| Lithium | China refining capacity | HIGH | 65% of refining |
| Nickel | Indonesia mining concentration | HIGH | 40% global production |
China refining dominance - 85% of global rare earth refining capacity
CRITICALDRC mining (73% global) + China refining (75% refined cobalt)
CRITICALChina controls 90% of global extraction, processing, and exports
CRITICALInvestment target for critical minerals by 2035. Mining GDP to grow from $17B to $75B by 2030.
✓ Ma'aden partnerships with Vedanta & Zijin
✓ Domestic lithium chemical plant
✓ Ivanhoe Electric exploration
Target non-oil GDP contribution by 2030 through minerals strategy
✓ $1.8B Orion Critical Minerals Consortium
✓ Regional processing hub strategy
✓ US partnership on lithium, copper, rare earths
Investment in lithium-battery chemical plant in Salalah Free Zone
✓ LFP and battery materials production
✓ Regional battery ecosystem
✓ Processing hub development
Tons of lithium carbonate equivalent discovered - 2nd largest known reserve
⚠ Significant untapped potential
⚠ Sanctions complicate investment
⚠ Infrastructure development needed
Thefts reported in 2020 (up from 1,298 in 2018). Price sensitivity: 10% metal increase = 20% theft increase
• Ford F-150 most targeted vehicle
• Hybrid vehicles contain higher PGM quantities
• $25-$300 per converter value
Annual losses in DRC from illegal cobalt mining. South Africa loses 3.8% of GDP to illegal gold mining
• Criminal gang involvement
• State-embedded actor collusion
• Organized smuggling networks
South Africa loses 10% annual production to illegal mining and smuggling to China
• Sophisticated export operations
• China as primary destination
• Enforcement gaps
Drug trafficking organizations shifting to more lucrative mineral trade including lithium in Mexico
• Cartel-controlled territories
• Terrorist financing links
• Sophisticated operations
Evaluate supply chain vulnerabilities for critical minerals
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